|
|
|
If switchgrass yields of 4.0 dry tons or better can be achieved in this region (Fig. 18), it would be a very promising region for energy crops (Tables 12 and 13). Estimated profitability of conventional crops is low as are observed cropland cash rents. Furthermore, cropland density is high. The only unpromising areas are the Red River Valley and counties adjacent the Platte River in Nebraska.
 |
The low rainfall in this region inhibits the yields of woody crops and raises farmgate prices. However, pockets of land, especially in Kansas, might be suitable.
ORIBAS Analysis- Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota
The ORIBAS analysis shows significantly lower costs for switchgrass production in North Dakota and South Dakota than does ORECCL and somewhat higher costs than ORECCL for switchgrass in the northeast corner of Nebraska. These differences are entirely due to production cost differences generated by the two approaches to estimating the returns to land and management. The correct answer for North Dakota and South Dakota is probably closer to the ORIBAS estimate for all lands except those in the Red River Valley where sugar beets would influence the true value. Sugar beet profitability was not modeled in the ORIBAS analyses but would have been captured in the farmland value ratio for the counties.
The ORIBAS prediction of higher prices for energy crops in Nebraska as compared to North Dakota or South Dakota is because ORIBAS predicted a much higher per acre profit associated with conventional crop production in Nebraska and thus higher farmgate prices for switchgrass. While ORIBAS assumes unirrigated production costs, the databases used in the ORIBAS algorithms do not differentiate irrigated yields and land from unirrigated yields and land. In the case of eastern Nebraska, where a considerable portion of the conventional cropland acreage is irrigated, the ORIBAS algorithm needs to be modified to better handle these differences. The very low ORIBAS switchgrass prices for North Dakota and South Dakota are result of the synergistic combination of an assumption of moderately good switchgrass yields ( ~ 4.5 to 5 dry tons/acre/yr), low yields on conventional crops, and very high cropland density.
Table 12. Short Rotation Woody Crops - Northern Plains Region
| SRWC | Average yield (ton/acre/yr) | ORECCL Average farmgate price ($/ton) | Acreage of cropland suitable for SRWC (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$35 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$40 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$45 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$50 (000) | ORECCL Average cash rent $/acre/yr) | Number of counties |
| Kansas | 4.52 | $54.64 | 4,587 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $42.92 | 29 |
| Nebraska | 4.52 | $67.15 | 6,424 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $89.25 | 29 |
| North Dakota | 3.76 | $62.21 | 15,676 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $41.69 | 29 |
| South Dakota | 4.32 | $61.58 | 7,371 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $60.14 | 24 |
| $61.98 | 34,058 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $54.82 | 111 |
Table 13. Switchgrass - Northern Plains Region
| SWG | Average yield (ton/acre/yr) | ORECCL Average farmgate price ($/ton) | Acreage of cropland suitable for SWG (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$30 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$35 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$40 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$45 (000) | ORECCL Average cash rent $/acre/yr) | Number of counties | ORIBAS Average land rent $/acre/yr) | ORIBAS Average farmgate price $/ton | Farmgate price difference ORIBAS- ORECCL |
| Kansas | 5.04 | $35.24 | 18,595 | 39 | 9,258 | 17,616 | 18,503 | $35.75 | 79 | |||
| Nebraska | 5.41 | $45.42 | 13,709 | 0 | 471 | 3.726 | 7,208 | $83.69 | 61 | $112.21 | $50.37 | $4.95 |
| North Dakota | 4.39 | $38.57 | 19,970 | 0 | 2,006 | 15,830 | 16,498 | $38.52 | 37 | $3.23 | $25.30 | ($13.27) |
| South Dakota | 5.09 | $38.42 | 12,642 | 0 | 1,737 | 9,292 | 11,592 | $49.13 | 43 | $4.26 | $26.17 | ($12.25) |
| $39. 03 | 64,916 | 30 | 13,470 | 46,464 | 53,801 | $49.33 | 220 |
At 110,000 dry ton/yr facility demand, ORIBAS identified 139 sites in Nebraska whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price was $42.05 to $53.13/dry ton with most sites strongly skewed towards the higher end of the price range (Fig. 19). Low cost sites were concentrated along the western edge of the eastern third of the state, in particular in the counties south of the town of Lincoln and counties west of the town of Norfolk, Nebraska. At a 700,000 dry ton/yr facility demand ORIBAS identified 22 sites whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price ranged from $46.46 to $57.50 (Fig. 20). The spatial pattern of site locations and price was the same as for the smaller facilities.
 |
|
 |
At 110,000 dry ton/yr facility demand, ORIBAS identified 153 sites in North Dakota whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price was $28.55 to $30.22/dry ton (Fig. 21). Sites were fairly evenly distributed across the region of North Dakota capable of producing switchgrass. (See Fig. 1 for the region boundaries). At a 700,000 dry ton/yr facility demand ORIBAS identified 24 sites whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price ranged from $30.86 to $33.60 (Fig. 22). The spatial pattern of site locations and price was the same as for the smaller facilities.
 |
|
 |
|
At 110,000 dry ton/yr facility demand, ORIBAS identified 74 sites in South Dakota whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price was $27.95 to $30.12/dry ton (Fig. 23). Sites were fairly evenly distributed across the region of South Dakota capable of producing switchgrass. (See Fig. 1 for the region boundaries). The low cost facilities tended to be located in the eastern portion of that region. At a 700,000 dry ton/yr facility demand ORIBAS identified 11 sites whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price ranged from $31.05 to $33.64 (Fig. 24). The spatial pattern of site locations and price was the same as for the smaller facilities.
 |
|
 |
|
|
