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With a few exceptions, the cornbelt (Fig. 8) has high farmgate prices (>$45/dry ton) for both switchgrass and hybrid poplar (Tables 4 and 5). While expected yields are fairly high for both energy crops, the value of the land for growing conventional crops raises the overall production costs quite significantly. Energy crop farmgate prices are moderate in only three locations—along the border area of Iowa and Missouri, the southeast section of Ohio, and the south central portion of Missouri (switchgrass only). The latter two locations, however, have fairly low cropland density and could not support a large demand for energy crop biomass.
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ORIBAS Switchgrass Analysis - Missouri and Iowa
The ORIBAS estimates of farmgate prices of Iowa and Missouri and their spatial pattern mirror the ORECCL estimates. The most promising area in Iowa is the south central area. While the overall farmgate prices for Missouri predicted by ORIBAS and ORECCL are comparable ($35 vs $39/dry ton), the spatial patterns are somewhat different. ORIBAS analysis predicts the southwest corner of the state to have the greatest promise for producing low-cost switchgrass (under $30/dry ton), while ORECCL suggests that the northern central section might also be a low-cost area.
At 110,000 dry ton/yr facility demand, ORIBAS identified 319 sites in Iowa whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price was $42.54 to $51.63/dry ton with most of the sites strongly skewed towards the higher end of the price range (Fig. 9). The sites were evenly distributed across the state. While lowest cost sites could be found virtually anywhere across the state, the central south section of the state was the best location. At a 700,000 dry ton/yr facility demand, ORIBAS identified 50 sites whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price ranged from $46.66 to $53.82 (Fig. 10). The spatial pattern of site locations and price was the same as for the smaller facilities.
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Table 4. Short-Rotation Woody Crops - Cornbelt Region
| SRWC | Average yield (ton/acre/yr) | ORECCL Average farmgate price ($/ton) | Acreage of cropland suitable for SRWC ((000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$35 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$40 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$45 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$50 (000) | ORECCL Average cash rent $/acre/yr) | Number of counties |
| Illinois | 5.00 | $65.46 | 23,154 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | $105.25 | 102 |
| Indiana | 5.00 | $61.65 | 12,623 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $89.60 | 92 |
| Iowa | 4.99 | $67.13 | 24,984 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $111.78 | 99 |
| Missouri | 4.78 | $58.56 | 13,796 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 605 | $68.41 | 114 |
| Ohio | 4.87 | $58.33 | 10,569 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 77 | $71.33 | 88 |
| $63.38 | 85,126 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 695 | $94.67 | 495 |
Table 5. Switchgrass - Cornbelt Region
| SWG | Average yield (ton/acre/yr) | ORECCL Average farmgate price ($/ton) | Acreage of cropland suitable for SWG ((000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$30 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$35 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$40 (000) | ORECCL Acreage of land with farmgate price <$45 (000) | ORECCL Average cash rent $/acre/yr) | Number of counties | ORIBAS Average land rent $/acre/yr) | ORIBAS Average farmgate price $/ton | Farmgate price difference ORIBAS- ORECCL |
| Illinois | 5.96 | $48.20 | 23,154 | 0 | 13 | 2,813 | 7,683 | $105.26 | 101 | |||
| Indiana | 5.91 | $45.11 | 12,623 | 0 | 0 | 1,484 | 6,982 | $89.60 | 92 | |||
| Iowa | 6.00 | $49.27 | 24,984 | 0 | 113 | 1,609 | 6,329 | $111.78 | 99 | $106.83 | $48.43 | ($2.84) |
| Missouri | 6.09 | $39.72 | 13,796 | 0 | 1,705 | 9,049 | 11,742 | $68.41 | 114 | $58.50 | $35.93 | ($3.79) |
| Ohio | 5.77 | $41.83 | 10,569 | 0 | 719 | 4,124 | 8,140 | $71.33 | 88 | |||
| $46.89 | 85,128 | 0 | 2,650 | 19,079 | 40,876 | $94.67 | 495 |
At 110,000 dry ton/yr facility demand, ORIBAS identified 135 sites in Missouri whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price was $29.95 to $42.77/dry ton with the sites generally skewed towards the higher end of the price range (Fig. 11). The heavily forested southeast section of the state was devoid of sites except for the southeast boot-heel of the state on the Mississippi River. The northwest corner of the state was also devoid of sites, because of the high farmgate prices associated with that region. The lowest cost sites were generally found in the southwest quarter of the state. At a 700,000 dry ton/yr facility demand ORIBAS identified 50 sites whose marginal delivered switchgrass feedstock price ranged from $35.57 to $46.24 (Fig.12). As in Iowa, the spatial pattern of site locations and price was the same for the smaller and the larger facilities.
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